Scenario Cases

The OMNIA model is delivered with two modelling case scenarios:

  1. The Base-NoPolicy scenario aims to showcase the functionality of the OMNIA model. The outputs of this scenario are not intended to interpret the possible future pathway of the global energy system, but rather to evaluate the core model functionalities.

  2. The Baseline policy scenario aims to have a common scenario for intercomparison work among the IAMs developed under the project DIAMOND. The core approach is based on modelling emissions targets, to reflect the latest mitigation efforts based on officially submitted, specifically: i) the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and their latest updates as of and after COP30 for non-EU regions; and ii) Long-term targets (LTT) for both EU (member state level) and non-EU regions.

The SuppXLS folder contains all the regular scenario files (called Scenario Files in the VEDA nomenclature) in which the inputs and assumptions for the different modelling scenarios can be managed.

These scenario files can include definitions of parameters necessary to run the model (Root parameters) or assumptions regarding the customised scenarios (Scenario parameters). The files containing the Root parameters must always be selected to run the model, whereas the Scenario parameters can be selected based on the scenario characteristics. Scenario parameters can include the implementation of policy constraint scenarios (as in the baseline policy scenario), or they have been added to ensure that the results are not solely driven by cost optimisation, which could lead to a rapid switch in technology or fuel that does not reflect realistic trends or historical years.

The table below summarizes the files included in the SuppXLS folder. Each scenario is defined by a different combination of the scenario files contained in this folder.

File name

Description

Parameters

Scen_00_DataByTimeslice_20

Assumptions regarding the timeslice definition
and the intra-annual production and consumption profiles.

Root

Scen_00_DemandProjections_SSP2

Assumptions regarding end-use demand projections
by sector.

Root

Scen_00_DiscountRate

Cost of capital assumptions
for power sector technologies.

Root

Scen_00_GHG_EmiFact.xlsx

Greenhouse gas emission factors
used in the model.

Root

Scen_00_Potentials

Assumptions on renewable energy technical potentials,
primary production bounds, CO₂ storage limits,
and future import and export constraints
for energy commodities.

Root

Scen_00_PWR_CAP-Reserve

Capacity reserve assumptions
for the power sector.

Root

Scen_00_PWR_CAP-Retirement

Retirement profiles of existing
power generation technologies.

Root

Scen_01_IND_Setup

User constraints controlling the industry sector,
including chemicals, wood products,
paper and pulp, other industries,
and non-energy uses.

Scenario Base-NoPolicy

Scen_01_IND_IIS_AL_CM_INF_Setup

User constraints controlling iron and steel,
aluminium, non-ferrous metals, cement,
and non-metallic minerals, including the soft-link
with the ENGAGE model for circular economy assumptions.

Scenario Base-NoPolicy,
Scenario Baseline policy

Scen_01_PWR_Setup

User constraints controlling
the power sector.

Scenario Base-NoPolicy

Scen_01_RES_COM_Setup

User constraints controlling the residential
and service sectors.

Scenario Base-NoPolicy

Scen_01_TRA_Setup

User constraints controlling
the transport sector.

Scenario Base-NoPolicy

Scen_01_UPS_Setup

User constraints controlling
the upstream sector.

Scenario Base-NoPolicy,
Scenario Baseline policy

Scen_02_baseline.xlsx

Implementation of emission targets
included in the Baseline scenario.

Scenario Baseline policy

Scen_02_Biofuels_Setup_baseline.xlsx

Constraints related to
biofuel blending requirements.

Scenario Baseline policy

Scen_02_IND_Setup_baseline.xlsx

Industry-sector constraints,
including the circular economy structure
linked to the ENGAGE model.

Scenario Baseline policy

Scen_02_PWR_Setup_baseline

Power-sector constraints.

Scenario Baseline policy

Scen_02_RES_COM_Setup_baseline

Residential and service sector
constraints.

Scenario Baseline policy

Scen_02_TRA_Setup_baseline

Transport-sector constraints.

Scenario Baseline policy

Scen_99_UPS_BIO_Ressource_MagPie

Structure for updating bioenergy resource constraints
using the soft-link with the MAgPIE model.

Not applied in any scenario
(structure available)

Scen_99_TRA_BehaviouralChange

Structure for constraining the market potential
of battery electric vehicles through the
behavioural change model soft-link.

Scenario Baseline policy

Scen_99_PWR_openTEPES

Structure for constraining electricity trade
between European countries using the
openTEPES soft-link.

Not applied in any scenario
(structure available)

Scen_99_AGR-UPS_Emissions_MagPie

Structure for incorporating LULUCF emissions
from the MAgPIE soft-link.

Scenario Baseline policy